about
I am an economist at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in the Division of Financial Stability. My research interests include macrofinance, asset pricing, and financial intermediation.
I received my Ph.D. in financial economics from the Yale School of Management. Previously, I was an economist at Morgan Stanley and a research associate at the Yale Program on Financial Stability.
working papers
The Collateral Premium and Levered Safe-Asset Production
2020 BlackRock Applied Research Award Finalist
September 2021
Abstract · PDF
Banks are vital suppliers of money-like safe assets: banks produce safe assets by issuing short-term liabilities and pledging collateral. But their ability to create safe assets varies over time as leverage constraints fluctuate. I present a model to describe private safe-asset production when intermediaries face leverage constraints. I measure bank leverage constraints using bank-intermediated basis trades. The collateral premium — a strategy long Treasuries used more often as repo collateral and short Treasuries used less often — has a positive expected return of 65 basis points per year because the collateral premium compensates for bank leverage risk.
Investor Information and Bank Instability During the Euro Crisis
with Silvia Iorgova, September 2021
Abstract · PDF · IMF WP #2021/005
Outside of financial crises, investors have little incentive to produce private information on banks’ short-term liabilities held as information-insensitive safe assets. The same does not hold during crises. We measure daily information production using credit default swap spreads during the global financial crisis and the subsequent European debt crisis. We study abnormal information production around major events and interventions during these crises and find that, on average, capital injections reduced abnormal information production while early European stress tests increased it. We also link information production to outcomes: high levels of information production predict bank balance sheet contraction and higher government expenditures to support financial institutions. In an addendum, we show information production on non-financials dramatically increased relative to financials at the height of the Covid-19 crisis, reflecting the non-financial nature of the initial shock.
Safe-Asset Migration
March 2020
Abstract · PDF · SSRN
Post-crisis reforms changed the location of safe-asset production. I propose a pair of tests to identify who issues safe assets and which safe-asset issuers opportunistically time issuance when the price of safe assets is high. The Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) system is a newly crucial safe-asset producer. FHLB debt issuance is an important determinant of the price of safe assets, and FHLB debt issuance responds to day-to-day fluctuations in safe-asset demand — measured via the convenience yield. FHLBs issue more after an unexpected increase in the convenience yield, and an unexpectedly large FHLB issue decreases the convenience yield. The FHLBs’ ability to produce safe assets depends on their implicit government backing, a potential source of concern for future policymakers.
published work
Who Ran on Repo?
with Gary B. Gorton and Andrew Metrick
AEA Papers and Proceedings (2020)
Abstract · PDF · Link
The sale and repurchase (repo) market played a central role in the recent financial crisis. From the second quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, net repo financing provided to U.S. banks and broker-dealers fell by about $900 billion—more than half of its pre-crisis total. Significant details of this “run on repo” remain shrouded because many of the providers of repo finance are lightly regulated or unregulated cash pools. In this paper, we supplement the best available official data sources with a unique market survey and data from the footnotes of public companies’ quarterly filings to provide an updated picture of the dynamics of the repo run. We provide evidence that the flight of foreign financial institutions, domestic and offshore hedge funds, and other unregulated cash pools predominantly drove the run. Our analysis highlights the danger of relying exclusively on data from regulated institutions, which would miss the most important parts of the run.
works in progress
Making Money
with Gary B. Gorton and Sharon Y. Ross
Abstract
It is difficult for private agents to produce money that circulates at par with no questions asked. We study two cases of privately-produced money: pre-Civil War U.S. private banknotes and current stablecoins. Private monies are introduced when there are no better alternatives, but they initially carry an inconvenience yield. Over time, these monies may become more money-like, but they do not always achieve a positive convenience yield. For private banknotes, technological change and reputation formation drive these private monies to evolve toward a positive convenience yield. We show that the same forces are at work for stablecoins.
Capital in the Financial Crisis
with Timothy F. Geithner and Andrew Metrick
Abstract
Why was the financial system stabilized with so little additional capital and very little additional public capital by mid-2009 despite substantial loss estimates? In early 2009, mark-to-market losses implied $800 billion of credit losses remaining, and consensus estimates stood at $340 billion. But the stress test in May 2009 required banks to raise only an incremental $75 billion of capital. Why? First, credit losses are not equivalent to capital needs because banks that remain a going concern can offset losses with revenues. Second, net income and actuarial loss estimates — rather than market-implied losses — were the proper basis for the stress test estimates of capital needs. Third, the expected path of the economy improved with macroeconomic policy actions.
Cash-Hedged Stock Returns
with Landon J. Ross and Sharon Y. Ross
Abstract
U.S. companies hold cash on their balance sheets, and the share of assets held in cash varies across companies and over time. A firm’s cash holding is an implicit position in a low-return asset, which pushes down a firm’s common stock return, and investors should thus hedge out the cash on the balance sheets when calculating equity returns. Failing to do so has implications for portfolio formation and optimization, asset pricing models, and trading strategy performance.
Pricing With Almost-Arbitrages
with Sharon Y. Ross
Abstract
We calculate realistic returns to more than 120 collateralized, bank-intermediated arbitrage identities to proxy for daily changes in intermediaries’ marginal value of wealth. Increased leverage constraints mean intermediaries delever, and arbitrage returns grow. Large arbitrage returns correspond to high marginal values of intermediaries’ wealth. We show how the marginal investor changes over time.
other writing
Forecasting the Economy During Covid-19 Link · PDF
with Sharon Y. Ross
May 26, 2020, Yale Program on Financial Stability
A Long Way to Go for Emerging Markets Link · PDF
with Ahyan Panjwani
April 26, 2020, Yale Program on Financial Stability
Fed Actions Support Agency Mortgage REITs Link · PDF
with Sharon Y. Ross
April 22, 2020, Yale Program on Financial Stability
The FHLBs During the Coronavirus Crisis, Part 2 Link · PDF
April 6, 2020, Yale Program on Financial Stability
Flight from Maturity During the Coronavirus Crisis Link · PDF
with Sharon Y. Ross, Gary B. Gorton, and Andrew Metrick
March 26, 2020, Yale Program on Financial Stability
The FHLBs During the Coronavirus Crisis, Part 1 Link · PDF
March 24, 2020, Yale Program on Financial Stability
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